3-Signal Test to Spot the Next AI Mega Trend (Before Everyone Else)

By Dan Sanchez · Episode published

Separate durable AI trends from hype by watching three signals: organic excitement, meaningful resistance, and sustained adoption after the novelty fades, then act before the shift becomes obvious.

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Every new AI feature arrives with a crowd of people declaring that it will change everything. Most of those declarations are marketing. A better way to decide where to spend your time is to look for three signals: ordinary people are excited, ordinary people resist it, and adoption keeps growing.

Signal one: people evangelize it without being paid

Marketers are good at promoting the tools connected to their job. That is why professional excitement is weak evidence. The stronger signal is everyday people sharing a product because it solved a real problem for them.

ChatGPT’s launch created that kind of reaction. People from every background were showing it to friends and talking about what it could do. Clubhouse created a similar burst during lockdown because it solved the immediate need for conversation, but the excitement did not last.

When you are evaluating a new AI trend, watch who is talking about it. Are teachers, business owners, parents, creators, and people outside the obvious audience sharing their own examples? If the conversation exists only among vendors and paid evangelists, you are probably looking at a campaign rather than a durable shift.

Signal two: people resist it because it feels threatening

Resistance is not always a reason to dismiss a technology. It can be evidence that people understand its implications. The internet, social media, and AI all attracted people who said they were dangerous, unnecessary, or impossible to trust.

The useful question is whether the resistance is emotional and widespread. If people are worried that a tool will change their work, identity, or habits, they may already recognize that it has power. A tool nobody cares about does not create that kind of opposition.

This also helps separate a megatrend from an AI hype cycle. Agentic AI has been heavily promoted by technology companies, but promotion alone does not prove adoption. Look for people outside the industry arguing about what the technology means and whether it should exist. That is a stronger indicator that the behavior underneath the product may actually change.

Signal three: adoption continues after the novelty fades

Excitement and resistance are not enough. Clubhouse had both and still faded. You need sustained growth over time.

Watch for ordinary people continuing to use the tool months after the first wave. Look for growth data from credible sources, but also look at behavior. Are people returning to it? Are they finding new uses? Are companies building it into their routines? Is the conversation spreading to people who did not care about the original launch?

This is why I waited before treating AI as a durable shift. I saw the initial ChatGPT moment, but I wanted to know whether it was another Clubhouse or crypto cycle. The excitement kept spreading organically, resistance remained high, and adoption did not stop. That combination was enough to commit.

You can use the same test inside a larger trend. AI video, vibe coding, voice interfaces, and personalized assistants may each become major opportunities, but they are not automatically durable because the parent category is durable.

For each one, ask: who outside the tech industry is sharing it? Who is worried about it? Does usage keep growing when the first novelty wears off? If all three signals line up, you may have found a trend early enough to build a career, audience, or business around.

Do not wait for certainty. The point is to replace reflexive hype with a repeatable way to make a bet. Once the evidence is strong enough, learn the tool and start creating with it. The people who build useful experience before a trend becomes obvious earn an advantage that is hard to copy later.

The next wave of marketing will reward people who can notice behavior shifts before they become standard practice. Pay attention to who is excited, who is resisting, and who keeps using the thing after the headlines move on.